Project_Mini

Modern Sustainability

Introduction/Purpose

Our project focuses on the future of agriculture and how it can become sustainable. Our society is projected to have growing food demands, with decreasing available land space. Climate change is projected to destabilize regions, with more frequent storms coupled with increasing disruptive weather intensity. Currently, traditional agriculture makes up the bulk of food production, and is largely an unsustainable and one of the leading contributors to climate change. To meet the demands of a growing society, we must integrate modern technological solutions in an effort to increase efficiency and safeguard our food production from a growing list of externalities.

Why traditional agriculture might be viewed as unsustainable: the amount of water, land, and fertilizer use is too large, and the yields will not be able to feed a growing human population. As the human population rises, traditional agricultural methods will require more land to feed the growing population. In the face of climate change, the risk of crop failure rises.

Indoor, vertical farming addresses these major issues. Vertical farming requires far less land use; it dramatically expands usable surface area through the use of the vertical plane; currently an unused dimension in most agricultural production zones. Closed-loop hydroponic systems require a fraction of the water that traditional agriculture requires and less fertilizer. This both reduces water usage by agriculture and reduces pollution associated with agricultural chemicals, fertilizers, and soil erosion. The reduced need for fertilizer is also of importance as the earth’s finite phosphorous resource dwindles away.

Robotics decrease the need for humans to perform repetitive tasks, as well as reducing disease and insect transmission in closed/vertical facilities (Which is currently a major issue, due to the lack of predators in these environments).

We also address the concern of climate change and crop failure. Controlled environment facilities do not have the same worry of fluctuating weather patterns, floods, droughts, etc

Overview

World Population Statistics: 1950 to 2100

Population Metrics

  • 1850: 1.28 Billion
  • 1950: 2.54 Billion
  • 2050 (Projected): 9.7 Billion
  • 2100: 10.9 Billion

## 1850 to 1950
(2.54 - 1.28)/1.28 * 100
## [1] 98.4375
  • 1850 to 1950: 98.44% Increase
## 1950 to 2050
(9.7 - 2.54)/2.54 * 100
## [1] 281.8898
  • 1950 to 2050: 281.89% Increase

Global Demand For Food Expected To Increase By 59%-98% by 2050 (From 2017)

What Caused Population Increase?

Industrial Revolution

  • 1760 - 1840
  • Transition to machine manufacturing
  • Chemical/Iron/Steam/Water Power
  • Mechanized factory system
  • Increased wealth and quality of life of average person
  • Led to rapid evolution of medicine
  • Said to lead to massive population growth

Haber Process

  • Invented in 1909 by Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch
  • Produced ammonia-based fertilizer that required less labor and electric energy
  • 1918 Nobel Prize
  • One of the core pillars of agricultural efficiency which led to population increase

Modern Industry

  • Mechanized/Robotic machines automate to exact specifications
  • Easily integrated with AI and Machine Learning algorithms
  • Increased efficiency (No health problems, less mistakes, no turnover)
  • Ability to keep working environment biologically sterile
  • Continuous (near exponential) development and growth (Especially compared to efficiency of historical methods)

Climate/Traditional Agriculture Issues

Land Use

As the global human population increases, more land is required to feed the world. If we continue using traditional agricultural methods, this will require more deforestation, more water usage, and more chemical fertilizers in order to keep up with food demand.


  • Half of all habitable land is used for agriculture
  • Livestock accounts for 77% of global farming land
  • Livestock produces 18% of the world’s calories and 37% of total protein

Climate Change Effects


  • Temperatures exacerbated by climate change are causing billions of dollars to US farmers
  • American taxpayers subsidize the federal insurance program that protects farmers from financial shocks
  • Climate temperature increases generated an estimated $27 billion in insurance payments to farmers between 1991 and 2017

These numbers will rise as climate change intensifies, further harming American taxpayers, as climate change is resulting in agricultural financial costs that are in the billions.

Drought has been the major culprit among financial losses, some farmers have destroyed their water intensive crops, such as almond trees, in an attempt to adapt to the changes.

Organic Efficiency

  • 2019 Study from England/Wales models 40% decrease in total food production from switching to Organic from Conventional
  • Replacement foods to meet population demand would come from overseas locations - carbon footprint larger overall
  • Land area needed to make up shortfalls in domestic production would be nearly 5 times current land area usage for England and Wales

Utilizing Modern Technologies Preview

Vertical Indoor Hydroponic


  • Indoor facilities are shielded from all but the most severe environmental factors
  • Controlled environment; automation ready (nutrient dispersal/monitoring)
  • Year-round production
  • Able to take great advantage of ‘green’ energy technologies, such as wind and solar
  • Becoming more and more energy efficiency by the year (Quantum Boards/COB lighting)
  • Vertical integration alleviates horizontal land pressure

Robotic and AI Implementation



  • Robotics decrease the massive human labor cost of one of the most prolific industries on earth
  • Robotics are able to collect more precise data for Machine Learning/AI implementation
  • Robotics must be used with indoor facilities to prevent pest/contaminant explosions
  • AI/Increased data collection allows statistical analysis and issue identification rapidly; accelerates development
    • Human-staffed indoor facilities currently suffer from lack of natural predators; i.e. aphids can devastate a site
  • Auxiliary: Most agricultural jobs are manual labor intensive - low amount of education/technical training in an increasingly technically demanding world.
    • Freeing these individuals allows for increased educational development

Pitch

Policy-Makers and Administrators

British Columbia Flooding 11/14/2021


  • Toxic chemicals can/will leach into soil
  • Events such as this modeled to increase in number and intensity
  • It is happening now
  • System is becoming inhospitable to sustain current production levels, let alone increasing demands
  • Need food production facilities that are resistant to increased volatility

Research

Cornell Hydroponic Research

  • Begin funding, grants, and educational campaign to promote research and development into these technologies
  • Become proactive, rather than reactive. Reactive strategies (Remediation) is incredibly expensive, isn’t applicable to wide-scale application
  • More research and development leads to increased efficiency for a necessary technology, drives further economic interest in area
  • Safeguards local economic outputs from currently guaranteed disruption

Mini Summary

We believe that the increased population and food demands facing our society cannot be solved by technologies or methodologies developed and implemented successfully for vastly different conditions. No historical agricultural system has, to our knowledge, ever faced such demands and stressors as we currently face both now and in the future.

To combat these new challenges, we must utilize modern technologies and underutilized spaces; we must use vertical space to solve our land issue. We must utilize hydroponic facilities capable of water and nutrient recycling to help alleviate the fresh water crisis. We must increase efficiency with modern robotic assistance in combination with environmentally controlled indoor facilities to curb the physical labor stress of agriculture, as well as solve the bacterial/fungal/pest issues which plague modern agriculture.

In our full presentation, we will highlight and showcase some of these methodologies, as well as compare them directly with both organic and conventional methods of traditional (outdoor) farming methods.